On June 5, according to the analysis of Yide Futures, macroscopically, the US debt ceiling negotiations were successfully resolved. The US non-agricultural employment data was strong, but the unemployment rate increased and the manufacturing data shrank. Under pressure, the overall market sentiment eased.
In China, the economic data is not as good as expected, monetary easing is still difficult to turn into credit expansion, policy calls have increased, but the country may still have strength under the relatively strong service industry.
Macroscopically, after the weak recovery in China and the shallow recession in the United States, the market began to look for trading points with marginal improvement.
On the supply side, the disturbance at the mine end eased, and TC continued to rise quarter-on-quarter; overhauls increased in the second quarter, but the cold material was relatively sufficient, and the decline in smelting output was limited; the supply of scrap copper strengthened quarter-on-quarter, weakening the consumption of refined copper.
China’s demand has been stocked up after the price fell, China’s inventory has been rapidly depleted, and the spot premium has risen, indicating that consumption has been boosted to a certain extent.
Overseas inventories continue to increase, and China will also enter the off-season of consumption. The ability to continue to destock needs to pay attention to trading strategies: macro expectations fluctuate, copper prices may still be under pressure, and focus on the first-line pressure of 67,000.
