June 2, SC crude oil main contract rose over 2%, Chaos Tiancheng Futures view: Supply side: New OPEC+ meeting is approaching, OPEC+ production cuts are still the biggest driver on the supply side, OPEC may have reduced exports, Russian seaborne exports are still at high levels, rumors before the meeting that Saudi Arabia expressed dissatisfaction with Russia’s lack of substantial production cuts, Saudi Arabia lowered the price of light oil exported to Asia.
Demand side: U.S. PMI is lower than expected, as well as the Fed officials speak, increasing the probability of suspending interest rate hikes in June. EIA weekly report shows that U.S. table demand is general, gasoline diesel consumption have weakened.
Inventory side: As of May 26, 2023, API inventories showed a one-week accumulation of 5.2 million barrels of crude oil, 1.89 million barrels of gasoline and 1.85 million barrels of distillates. As of May 26, 2023, EIA commercial crude stocks increased by 4.49 million barrels, refinery stocks increased by 0.99 million barrels, and gasoline stocks decreased by 0.21 million barrels. The current oil price is still a game between macro recession outlook and OPEC+ production cuts, the U.S. peak season travel or less than expected, the global recession pressure, crude oil still look shockingly down.
