On May 31, Guotai Junan Futures commented: On May 30, Saudi Aramco launched its CP in June, propane was $450/ton, down $105/ton from the previous month; butane was $440/ton, down $115 from the previous month USD/ton. The sharp drop in CP prices was slightly lower than market expectations, coupled with another drop in overseas oil prices, PG gapped and opened lower in night trading, closing down 5.85% in night trading, and further expanded by more than 6% in early trading. The current Saudi cracker maintenance has made Its exports have increased significantly, and its domestic inventory pressure is relatively high, making the international market sufficient in stock, and the supply is still relatively loose.
In terms of demand, PG is in the off-season of burning demand, while PDH’s profits have been restored, but the actual increase in propane demand is not enough to change the current pattern of loose supply. In addition, the consumption tax imposed on isooctane has a greater impact on C4 after ether, and the sharp drop in the price of C4 has a certain degree of suppression on the spot price of PG and the market.
Judging from the basis difference, the current basis difference is also at a low level, which limits the space above the market. Therefore, the collapse of the cost side is combined with loose supply and demand, and PG is expected to run weakly in the short term, and the cost support of about 3,850 yuan/ton will be tested below.
