Global corn stocks have become increasingly tight, as new data from the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report reveals significant adjustments to the corn production forecast. In May 2024, the report had projected a strong supply of corn for the upcoming season, but revised figures from January show a shift toward tighter availability, impacting both the commodity markets and feed consumers globally.
Corn, a fundamental driver in the grain and oilseed markets, is expected to have a production total of 1,219 million tonnes for 2024. In comparison, wheat production is estimated at 793 million tonnes, and other coarse grains at approximately 300 million tonnes. Soybean production is projected at 422 million tonnes, highlighting the importance of corn, which accounts for around 50% of the world’s grain and oilseed production.
As crops compete for acreage and feed rations adjust with the price of grains, corn remains a major price determinant for agricultural commodities. According to the latest WASDE data, corn production has been revised down by 3.5 million tonnes, bringing the revised estimate to 1,214 million tonnes. Although this adjustment is relatively small—only a 5 million tonne difference from the original forecast—it is notable in a market that is already balancing on a razor’s edge. With no corresponding cuts in consumption, the reduction in supply directly impacts the year-end stocks, which are now forecasted to decrease by 3 million tonnes.
The United States, the world’s leading corn producer, saw a sharper production cut. U.S. corn production has been reduced by 7 million tonnes, representing a 1.8% decrease from previous estimates. This reduction has also led to a 5 million tonne drop in U.S. ending stocks. While the price reaction to this adjustment has not been dramatic, it has been significant enough to cause CME Corn futures to rise by approximately 30 cents per bushel, reaching a two-year high.
The weakening Australian dollar has also had an effect on pricing, with corn now priced at $306 per tonne, a figure that poses challenges for feed consumers while benefiting producers. As the world’s benchmark for feed grains, this rise in prices is a key concern for global markets, particularly in regions dependent on affordable feed.
In contrast, the WASDE report’s update for wheat production showed less dramatic changes. Wheat prices have followed a mild upward trend, aided by the rise in corn prices. However, there is little immediate movement in the wheat market, as much of the northern hemisphere’s winter crop remains dormant, and spring crops have yet to be planted. Wheat prices have experienced some lift but remain largely within the range seen since October 2024.
As the global agricultural landscape shifts with tightening corn stocks and steady wheat production, market participants will continue to monitor any further adjustments in the coming months.
